from News Wire Sources
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Two sets of polls released Sept. 8 find an edge for the GOP in a closely contested Senate midterm environment, although they differ on the size of that advantage. In the House, most news sources contend the Republicans will retain their majority.
A set of online CBS/New York Times/YouGov polls conducted in every Senate race finds an electoral landscape that has remained both competitive and largely stable throughout the year, with changes of less than 4 points in nine of the 10 most competitive races. Republicans “hold at least a nominal lead in eight states held by Democrats, more than the six they need to retake the chamber,” writes the New York Times’ Nate Cohn. The Times’ Senate model gives Republicans a 61% chance, or a “slight edge,” of retaking the Senate.
The most notable change from the last wave of YouGov polling is in Alaska, where the survey shows Republican Dan Sullivan pulling ahead of Sen. Mark Begich (D). Polling this year in the state has been both sparse and inconsistent.
A separate trio of Senate polls by NBC/Marist focusing on three of the most competitive states finds Republicans leading in Arkansas and Kentucky, while in Colorado the Democratic incumbent remains ahead.
The leading candidate’s margins in all three NBC/Marist surveys—8 points in Kentucky and 5 points in Arkansas for the Republican candidates, and 6 points in Colorado for the Democrat—are wider than those seen in the Huffington Post Pollster’s poll-tracking model, which shows all three races remaining extremely competitive.
However, in Kentucky, NBC/Marist’s polling finds Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) leading Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), 47% to 39%. Other recent polling, including CBS/NYT/YouGov, has showed McConnell edging ahead in the once-close race, but by a smaller margin of 4 to 5 points.
Just five days earlier, on Sept. 2, The McClatchy-Tribune (MCT) group reported on Roll Call’s 10 most vulnerable senators, saying Montana’s appointed Sen. John Walsh was by far the most endangered incumbent in the chamber in early August, but his decision to not seek a full term has opened the top slot on the list to a couple other worthy contenders.
Arkansas’s Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) is still in a perilous political position, but Louisiana Sen. Mary L. Landrieu (D) has leapfrogged him on the list to become the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbent.
She is pushing hard to eclipse 50% on Nov. 4, the day of Louisiana’s jungle primary and possibly Landrieu’s best opportunity for re-election. She will undoubtedly get close. But if Landrieu doesn’t win a majority of the vote against a few GOP challengers, she will likely face Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in the Dec. 6 runoff, a month after the general election elsewhere.
With the elections just two months away, Democratic incumbents overall have run strong-enough campaigns to ensure the fight for the Senate majority remains a tossup — despite a playing field tilted heavily in the GOP’s direction.
Republicans, who need a net gain of six seats to take control of the chamber, are expected to get halfway there by picking up the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. The open-seat opportunities don’t stop there, but the GOP will likely need to defeat at least two sitting senators to win the majority.
They have several to choose from among the 10 most vulnerable senators, according to Roll Call, a Capitol Hill newspaper.
- Mary L. Landrieu: No incumbent faces a more complicated path to re-election than Landrieu (D-LA), thanks to the state’s unique voting process and calendar. With a challenging national climate and a strong GOP challenger in Cassidy, Republicans may finally defeat the senator who has won some tough races before.
- Pryor (D-AR) is surprising people in both parties and is in far better shape at this point than some expected a year ago. But he remains a top target of national Republicans, who believe Rep. Tom Cotton will ultimately win over the GOP voters who have supported Pryor in the past.
- Begich (D-AK), the Democrat running arguably the best campaign also happens to be in possibly the most challenging state for the party. Begich and his Democratic backers have been hammering Republican Dan Sullivan for months, long before he finally emerged with the nomination Aug. 19.
- Kay Hagan (D-NC) is a top target for Republicans, but circumstances have been good to her. Republican Thom Tillis, the state House speaker, had to put his candidacy on the back burner for the past several months when the legislature’s “short session” ended up not so short. He only became a full-time candidate, when the House finally wrapped up.
- Mark Udall (D-CO) has a strong opponent in Rep. Cory Gardner, and Colorado is a solidly purple state that could go either way. Democrats are hoping their 2010 playbook, which got Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet elected in a Republican wave year, will be as successful the second time around.
- If rankings went by polling alone, McConnell (R-KY) might be higher on the Roll Call list. He faces a legitimate challenge in Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, a rock star fundraiser who makes the party optimistic. Grimes needs to top the 47% McConnell’s previous opponent received in 2008, but that’s not easy in a midterm cycle with an unpopular Democratic president.
- Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is well-liked and remains the clear favorite, but a single poll in mid-August showing a 2-point race caused an uproar of speculation. It’s likely not that close, but Republicans hope former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown would begin to close the gap after the Sept. 9 primary.
- With a solid lead in the polls and large financial advantage, Jeff Merkley (D-OR) doesn’t appear to be in much danger. But Republican Monica Wehby is getting some much-needed help from the Koch brothers on the airwaves and Merkley’s poll numbers, while strong, don’t match Al Franken’s, pushing the Oregon senator up one spot on this list.
- Al Franken (D-MN) is a strong fundraiser in a solidly blue state. There’s a path for Republicans to potentially make this race competitive, but so far, GOP nominee Mike McFadden hasn’t made it happen.
- It would take a Republican wave election to oust Mark Warner (D-VA), a popular former governor with a massive cash advantage over his Republican opponent Ed Gillespie. He joins this list largely for lack of another option.
