By Dave Workman
Editor-in-Chief
A report from Reuters published by Yahoo News says Vice President Kamala Harris “opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump” in the 48 hours since President Joe Biden was convinced to end his re-election campaign.
That report quoted a Reuters/Ipsos poll. According to Reuters, “The new poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, followed both the Republican National Convention where Trump on Thursday formally accepted the nomination and Biden’s announcement on Sunday he was leaving the race and endorsing Harris.
“Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll,” Reuters said, “a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.”
However, Fox News reported on a Reuters/Ipsos poll on July 16 which showed Trump “narrowly hedging out Harris by 1 percentage point.”
Can anyone really rely on poll results now gauging the odds in as Trump-v-Harris matchup? All the former president needs to do, say some observers, is stick strictly with the crisis on the southern border, and remind voters Harris has been Biden’s “border czar.”
TIME magazine has published the result of several polls in recent days, including one from FiveThirtyEight showing a “slight majority” of Americans have a negative opinion of Harris 51-38 percent disapprove/approve. At the same time, “Trump has a higher disapproval rating of 53 percent” but 39 percent approve of him.
Another recent poll covered by TIME is the one conducted by The Economist and YouGov July 13-16, among 1,414 registered voters. In that poll, Harris trailed Trump by 5 percentage points, TIME noted.
Polling numbers could bounce around considerably in the weeks ahead, particularly when gun owners begin weighing in. Harris is widely known as an anti-gunner while Trump is still the only president in recent memory to have routinely mentioned the need to protect the Second Amendment in his stump speeches.
FiveThirtyEight considers the New York Times/Sienna College poll to be the “most accurate in the country,” and that recent survey shows in the swing states of Virginia and Pennsylvania, a July 9-12 survey shows Trump leading Harris by 5 percentage points in Virginia with a 4.2 point margin of error.
In Pennsylvania, the race is tighter, with Trump holding a 2 point lead.
The only poll which counts will come Nov. 5.
