By Lee Williams
SAF Investigative Journalism Project
Gun ownership rates haven’t changed much since the 1960s, Gallup pollsters would have you believe. Gun ownership is actually two points lower today than it was in the 60s, the polling giant claims.
According to Gallup, gun ownership data has been roughly the same for more than 60 years: 44% of Americans admit they have a gun in their home, but only 30% admit the gun is theirs and 14% say the gun isn’t theirs.
This data, minus a point or two, has been used in Gallup’s stories for years.
From an 11-year-old Gallup story titled Men, Married, Southerners Most Likely to Be Gun Owners, “an average of 30% of Americans said they personally own a gun. Another 14% did not personally own a gun but live in a household with someone who does.”
From a Gallup story published just weeks ago titled Gun Ownership Rates Have Spiked Among Republican Women, “A steady 31% of U.S. adults personally own a gun, while another 13% say there is a gun in their household that belongs to someone else.”
Almost all of Gallup’s anti-gun stories use this data to support their points, while some use the faulty data to support a long list of ever-changing claims.
“The stability in the overall figures obscures an increase in ownership among women in general, driven by Republican women,” the most recent story suggested.
The National Shooting Sports Foundation, the Second Amendment Foundation and other firearm groups strongly disagree with Gallup’s gun ownership numbers.
“I don’t believe that number is representative of the true number of gun owners in America today,” said National Shooting Sports Foundation spokesman Mark Oliva. “Everyone dismisses Gallup’s polling data.”
The two Gallup stories are not alone. Gallup’s pollsters have based hundreds of stories on their 44% have guns, 30% own the guns, and 14% don’t own the guns, premise.
“Majority in U.S. Continues to Favor Stricter Gun Laws,” which was published by Gallup Oct. 21, 2023, claims “Forty-four percent of U.S. adults say they have a gun in their home or on their property, with 30% saying the gun belongs to them personally and the remainder saying it belongs to another household member. “
“U.S. Opinion and the Election: Guns, Immigration, Climate,” which was published Oct. 21, 2022, states: “It is notable that Gallup data show 44% of Americans say either that they own a gun personally or that there is a gun in their household, making this a large constituency with a direct interest in legislation that would affect their gun ownership.”
“Gun Owners Increasingly Cite Crime as Reason for Ownership,” which was published Nov. 17, 2021, states, “It is notable that Gallup data show 44% of Americans say either that they own a gun personally or that there is a gun in their household, making this a large constituency with a direct interest in legislation that would affect their gun ownership.
“What Percentage of Americans Own Guns?” which was published Nov. 13, 2020, claims “Thirty-two percent of U.S. adults say they personally own a gun, while a larger percentage, 44%, report living in a gun household.”
On an online story page titled Guns, Gallup has a graphic that shares their firearm ownership data from the 1960s to today, which is simply titled: “Do you have a gun in your home?”
To be clear, Gallup has stated in stories that it didn’t track gun ownership data until around 2000, so it is not known how the organization gathered gun-ownership data from the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
Polling concerns
The NSSF’s Oliva and many others doubt that Gallup can obtain their data legitimately through phone calls, which the firm continues to use.
“If I were to be cold-called by a polling company and asked about guns, I would hang up on them,” Oliva told the Second Amendment Foundation, Monday.
Gun owners, he said, do not want to become crime victims, so they are very careful who they talk to about their guns, especially since several anti-gun state governments have already released their gun-owner data.
“New York published the names of those who had permits,” Oliva said. “California ‘accidentally’ released private concealed-carriers information.”
Other groups may use the gun-owner information for malicious purposes.
A lot of gun owners opt out of these surveys and aren’t well represented,” Oliva said.
Data problems
It is not known how Gallup came up with, or why they maintain, their gun-ownership numbers. The firm did not respond to SAF’s emails or phone calls seeking their comments for this story. Their data, however, is clearly wrong, especially the gun-sales numbers.
For the past 25 years, between 8 million to 39 million firearms were sold each year, according to FBI data, which is based on the ATF Form 4473. Actual firearms transfer data, which includes private sales that do not require federal forms, is higher.
“Gallup’s polling data would have you believe that 30 percent of gun owners are just adding to their collections,” Oliva said. “We don’t think this is true, especially when we’ve seen that millions of new gun owners are buying guns for the first time.”
Gallup certainly isn’t alone. In a story published in July, Pew Research said roughly 40% of Americans have a firearm in their home, including 32% who claimed ownership. This claim, too, is wrong.
No government agency or private firm like Gallup knows how many Americans have guns in their homes, or how many guns Americans have in their homes. The reason for this is simple: American gun owners do not trust the government or private firms like Gallup or Pew Research with their gun data.
It’s actually pretty simple, really.
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